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Nylig debatt om ingen avtale som ville bety at Storbritannia forlater EU (neste r) uten tilbakekallingsavtale, har fokusert p at Storbritannia automatisk ville falle tilbake p Verdenshandelsorganisasjonen (WTO) handelsregler. Disse reglene vil gjelde automatisk for britisk handel med EU-butikken Quebec og andre land som EU har frihandelsavtaler med.

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Som er? Hvert WTO-medlem har en liste over tariffer (avgifter p import av varer) og kvoter (begrensninger p antall varer) de gjelder for andre land. Disse er kjent som deres WTO-tidsplaner.

Den gjennomsnittlige EU-tariffen er ganske lav (ca 2,6% for ikke-landbruksprodukter), men i enkelte sektorer kan taksterne vre ganske hye.

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Etter Brexit kunne Storbritannia velge senke takstene eller avst dem helt, i et forsk p stimulere frihandel. Det kan bety at noen billigere produkter kommer inn i landet for forbrukere, men det kan ogs risikere drive noen britiske produsenter ute av drift.

Det er viktig huske at Storbritannia i henhold til WTOs ‘mestbegunstigede nasjon’ -reglene ikke kunne redusere tariffer for EU eller et bestemt land alene. Det mtte behandle alle andre WTO-medlemmer rundt om i verden p samme mten.

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Men en kilde nr WTO sier at EU ville vre godt innenfor sine rettigheter til insistere p kontroller i fravr av en gjensidig anerkjennelsesavtale.

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Ikke-tariffbarrierer vil ogs f enda strre innvirkning p tjenestesektoren, noe som utgjr om lag 80% av den britiske konomien.

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Eksempler er USA og Kina, Brasil og Australia. I Canada er det et hvilket som helst land med hvilket EU (og derfor Storbritannia) ikke har inngtt en frihandelsavtale. Det er da WTO-regler gr inn i.

Men det er mer komplisert enn det. De store konomiene ikke bare stoler p WTO-regler, de har ogs en rekke bilaterale avtaler med EU p toppen av det.

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I tilfelle en ikke-avtale Brexit, (og en abrupt endring i relasjoner), kunne Storbritannia ikke ha slike avtaler p plass og ville vre p nytt territorium. Begge sider ville gjre en innsats for innfre noen stopgap tiltak for holde deres konomier beveger seg, men en siste minutts sammenbrudd i forhandlinger ville vise seg vre svrt vanskelig.

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En rekke nyere artikler fra Brexits tilhrere har referert til WTOs handelsforenklingsavtale (TFA), som trdte i kraft i 2017, og hevdet at det forplikter EU til behandle Storbritannia ganske bra.

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